Home > Uncategorized > My own for-what-its-worth prediction: Bush will win with 287 electoral votes.

My own for-what-its-worth prediction: Bush will win with 287 electoral votes.

This is my WAG for this election, based on the map below.

Here's where I'm arriving at the wild and whacky 287 number:

Colorado: I don't believe Colorado is going to go for Kerry and I think the campaign knows it. I'm basing this on the Kerry/Edwards campaign pulling their ads from the state. They've lost it, according to their internal polling, and they need the money elsewhere.

Michigan: This state's been comfortably blue most of the time I've been checking it, moving to barely blue and now tied. It will, in my opinion, go barely for Bush.

Iowa: Has been polling (barely) for Bush since mid-September. Now it's tied, but I think Zogby's weighting it towards Democratic voters too much. Like Michigan, it will go barely for Bush.

Add their numbers together to the 254 that Electoral-Vote.com has Bush currently holding, and Bush is at 287. Add to that his possibly winning Ohio and new Jersey and you've got an out-of-the-ballpark 322.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

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